Australia is one of the clearest examples of why a disappointing crop forecast does not automatically mean a national food shortage.
ABARES expects Australia’s 2026–27 winter crop to decline, but the forecast remains historically large.
At the same time, El Niño raises questions about rainfall, crop conditions and future grocery prices.
What the latest crop forecast says
ABARES’ September 2026 Australian Crop Report forecasts national winter crop production at 61 million tonnes, down 12% from the previous year.
Even after that decline, the crop would be 16% above the 10-year average and the fourth-largest on record if realized.
Wheat production is forecast to fall 17% to 29.9 million tonnes, which would still be slightly above the 10-year average.
That is a weaker crop, not an empty-food-shelves scenario.
Why a lower harvest can still matter
Australia exports agricultural commodities.
A smaller exportable surplus can affect global buyers, particularly when several exporting countries are also experiencing weather or logistics problems.
Domestic prices do not necessarily move in exactly the same direction because Australia has its own production, trade and market conditions.
El Niño’s role
A stronger El Niño can affect rainfall and temperature patterns.
The impact varies across Australia.
Southern cropping regions can have different conditions from northern grain areas.
ABARES’ current forecast reflects better-than-expected conditions in much of the south partly offset by poor conditions in parts of northern New South Wales and Queensland.
What about grocery prices?
Food prices depend on much more than the harvest.
Retail prices include farm costs, processing, transport, labor, packaging, imports and retail margins.
A weaker wheat crop may matter more to flour and feed markets than directly to the price of every grocery item.
Why Australia is not a simple shortage story
Australia remains a large agricultural producer with functioning domestic and international supply chains.
Its challenge is to maintain production and affordability while weather becomes less predictable and input costs remain elevated.
That is a very different problem from a nationwide disappearance of food.
What to monitor
Watch:
- wheat and barley production;
- rainfall and soil moisture;
- export volumes;
- fertilizer prices;
- domestic grocery inflation;
- and El Niño updates.
Bottom line
Australia’s 2026–27 outlook is weaker than the previous season but still historically strong.
The evidence supports a story about crop variability, farm costs and possible price pressure—not an imminent nationwide food shortage.
See Super El Niño 2026–27 for the climate system and Food Prices for the global market.