Fertilizer is an upstream food-supply issue. Consumers usually notice food prices months before they ever hear about the fertilizer market, even though fertilizer decisions made before planting can influence later harvests.
That makes fertilizer availability, price and transport important indicators for food-security planning in 2026 and 2027.
What changed in 2026?
Energy and fertilizer markets have been disrupted by the conflict and shipping problems around the Strait of Hormuz. FAO warned in May that fertilizer scarcity linked to those disruptions could lower yields and tighten food supplies in the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
In September, FAO also highlighted the importance of Gulf fertilizer exports and the connection between maritime disruption, energy markets and agricultural input costs.
The exact effect will vary by crop, country and planting calendar. A fertilizer shock is not an automatic global food shortage. It is a risk that can become important when it persists across a large share of a farming system.
Why fertilizer matters to food production
Plants need nutrients to grow. The major commercial nutrient groups are nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium.
Farmers do not all use fertilizer in the same way. Soil fertility, rainfall, crop choice, farm size and irrigation all affect the response.
That matters because a price shock does not necessarily produce the same outcome everywhere.
A farmer with healthy soil and good nutrient-management practices may be able to reduce fertilizer use without a large yield loss. Another farmer may be operating close to the agronomic limit and have fewer alternatives.
How a fertilizer shock travels through the food system
The chain usually develops in stages.
First, the price or availability of fertilizer changes.
Next, farmers decide whether to buy the required amount, delay a purchase, change the application rate or alter planting decisions.
Then the effect may appear in crop yields, production costs and expectations for the next harvest.
Only after that can the impact become visible in commodity prices or food markets.
This lag is why fertilizer shortages are often described as a future food-supply risk rather than an immediate supermarket shortage.
Why energy prices matter
Nitrogen fertilizer production is closely tied to energy markets, especially natural gas.
When gas becomes expensive or production is disrupted, fertilizer manufacturers can face higher costs. Shipping disruption can add another layer through freight and insurance.
The food-system chain therefore looks like this:
energy and gas → fertilizer production → fertilizer cost and availability → farm decisions → crop yields and production costs → commodity markets → food prices.
Every link matters, and not every shock passes through with the same strength.
Why the Gulf is important
FAO’s September 2026 statement highlighted the Gulf’s large role in global urea, sulfur and ammonia trade and the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to fertilizer movements.
That creates a concentration risk.
If a major producing or transit region becomes difficult to access, importers may need alternative suppliers or more expensive routes.
Countries with limited storage or limited purchasing power can be particularly exposed.
Can farmers adapt?
In many cases, yes, but adaptation has limits.
Useful approaches include soil testing, precision application, better timing of nutrients, improved organic-matter management and crop choices suited to local conditions.
At the market level, resilience can also come from diversified suppliers, adequate commercial stocks, better logistics and transparent price information.
Does fertilizer scarcity guarantee a food shortage?
No.
The final effect depends on duration, crop sensitivity, starting stocks, farmer responses, weather and the ability of governments and traders to secure alternative supplies.
A strong harvest can offset part of an input shock. Efficient nutrient management can lower the amount of fertilizer needed. Conversely, fertilizer disruption becomes more serious when it occurs at the same time as drought, heat, shipping problems or high energy costs.
What to monitor through 2026–27
Watch fertilizer prices by nutrient type, production and export interruptions, gas and energy costs, shipping availability, planting intentions, crop conditions and official production forecasts.
For the energy connection, read Oil, Energy and Food Prices. For the shipping route at the centre of the current risk, see Strait of Hormuz Food Crisis.
Bottom line
Fertilizer is a leading indicator because it affects food production before the harvest happens.
The important question is not whether every fertilizer disruption causes a food crisis. It is whether higher costs, delayed deliveries and reduced nutrient use persist long enough to affect production in important farming regions.
That is the risk the 2026–27 food system needs to watch.