El Niño is one of the most important climate signals for agriculture in late 2026, but the term “very strong El Niño” describes a forecasted strength category, not a guarantee of a global harvest failure.
NOAA’s September 2026 ENSO discussion said El Niño was strengthening and gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27.
That is a significant warning signal. It is not a forecast that every country will have poor harvests.
What NOAA is seeing
NOAA reported unusually warm sea-surface temperatures across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, with further strengthening during the previous month.
For October-December 2026, NOAA said there was a 75% chance of an event reaching a historic strength threshold based on the agency’s RONI measure.
Those probabilities describe the expected climate pattern. They do not directly translate into a percentage chance of a specific crop failing.
Why El Niño matters to food production
El Niño changes atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns.
The effects are regional.
Some producing areas can become wetter. Others can become drier or hotter. The timing also matters because planting, flowering and grain filling are sensitive to conditions at particular stages.
That is why there is no single “El Niño crop effect.”
The agricultural risks are crop-specific
A drought during a critical development stage can be more damaging than the same amount of dryness later in the season.
Heat can reduce yields where crops are already near their temperature limits.
Heavy rainfall can create planting delays or flood damage.
Livestock can also be affected when pasture or water availability changes.
The correct analysis therefore combines ENSO forecasts with regional crop information.
How climate risk can become food-price risk
Suppose a major exporter has a lower-than-expected harvest.
Importers may search for alternative suppliers.
Markets may react before the final crop is measured because prices incorporate expectations.
Feed costs can rise if maize supplies tighten.
Vegetable-oil markets can respond differently depending on the crops and regions affected.
The result can be higher food prices without a worldwide production collapse.
Why 2026 is especially important
The current El Niño signal is arriving while food markets are already dealing with transportation, energy and fertilizer uncertainty.
That raises the possibility of overlapping shocks.
An adverse weather event is harder to absorb when farm input costs are already high or alternative suppliers are difficult to reach.
This is one reason Food Prices and Fertilizer belong in the same risk map.
What would count as stronger evidence of a crop problem?
Watch actual observations rather than relying on the ENSO headline alone:
- rainfall and temperature;
- soil moisture;
- reservoir and irrigation conditions;
- planting progress;
- crop-condition reports;
- pest and disease developments;
- and official production forecasts.
If those indicators deteriorate in multiple major producing regions, the food-market implications become more significant.
What can reduce agricultural exposure?
Resilience measures include drought- and heat-tolerant varieties, irrigation where water use is sustainable, improved soil-moisture management, crop diversification, insurance and better seasonal forecasting.
No measure eliminates climate risk. The objective is to reduce the size of the shock.
Bottom line
A very strong El Niño is a meaningful agricultural risk signal for late 2026 and early 2027.
But El Niño is not a synonym for global food shortage.
The real story will be determined by what happens in individual farming regions, to individual crops, and to global trade as the season develops.
For the water side of climate risk, see Water Crisis and Food Crisis. For the wider climate cluster, visit Climate & Agriculture.