Pakistan’s wheat market entered 2026 under pressure from the previous year’s floods, market disruption and high flour prices.
FAO’s country assessment provides a useful picture: wheat production was expected to recover with an above-average planted area, but high prices could still reduce food access for vulnerable households before the new harvest arrived.
What happened to flour prices?
FAO reported that wheat-flour prices increased by roughly 50% to 90% in most markets between July 2025 and January 2026, reaching near-record levels.
The increase followed flood and landslide damage, lower 2025 wheat production and strong domestic demand.
That is a good example of a food-security shock caused by both physical losses and market conditions.
Why the 2026 harvest matters
FAO estimated that the 2026 wheat area was above the five-year average.
Farmers were encouraged to plant through policy support, while soil moisture was described as adequate at planting time.
A stronger harvest can ease supply pressure.
But the effect depends on the actual yield, procurement, storage and distribution.
Floods show why stocks matter
Agricultural disasters can destroy more than standing crops.
Floods can damage roads, warehouses, livestock, household food stores and local markets.
Even after the weather event ends, the economic damage can keep affecting prices.
Fertilizer and farm economics
Fertilizer costs influence planting decisions and yield potential.
A farmer who faces high fertilizer costs may have to reduce application, change crop plans or delay purchases.
The effect is not guaranteed, but it can increase production risk.
Food security is bigger than wheat
Wheat is central to the Pakistani diet, but food security also depends on income, market access, livestock, vegetables and other foods.
High wheat prices can therefore be a serious affordability issue even when the country is not physically short of every food.
What to watch
Track:
- wheat production estimates;
- flour prices;
- government procurement;
- fertilizer availability;
- flood recovery;
- wholesale and retail spreads;
- and regional food-security assessments.
Bottom line
Pakistan’s 2026 food-security challenge shows how a previous disaster can affect prices months later.
The new wheat harvest provides an important buffer, but affordable food still depends on production, stocks, markets and household purchasing power.